June 2025 Residential Market Update Highlights for the Kansas City Region
- Kyle Niemann
- Aug 17
- 3 min read
As we cross the midpoint of 2025, here’s where our local market stands—and what you should be watching for next.
Median Sales Price Growth Remains Strong
June’s median sales price for single-family resale homes hit $325,000. If history holds, this should be the year’s high point before we see the usual seasonal dip through January.
3.2% growth over June 2024
$10,000 increase from May 2025
The last four months have seen median price growth between 3.2% and 5%. This follows a run from September 2024 to February 2025 where increases ranged from 7.5% to 11%. The shift points to a market that’s become more balanced, with neither buyers nor sellers holding a clear advantage.
New Listings Have Another Great Month
New listings in June continued their year-over-year growth streak with an 8% increase over June 2024. While this isn’t quite as strong as the double-digit growth from the last three months, it’s a positive sign that more homeowners are bringing properties to market.
Contracts and Closings Catch Up With Listings
Contracts written in June jumped 6.6% year-over-year—the fourth consecutive month of increases, even if not as strong as May’s 14.6% gain.
The continued growth in contracts matches the streak in new listings, signaling sustained buyer demand. When listings hit the right price and area, buyers are still eager to move.
Closings in June jumped 12% over last year as contracts written in the spring made it to the finish line. As long as the pace of new listings and contracts continues, expect closing numbers to stay strong.
Potential Challenges Ahead
While our local fundamentals remain healthy, a few national factors could shape the second half of the year:
Federal Policies:Tariffs remain a big question, with potential to affect building costs. Building supplies typically account for 40–50% of a home’s cost, with labor another 30–40%. Changes in either could drive new home prices higher.
In 2024, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported that about 7.3% of materials used in new residential construction were imported—roughly $14 billion of the $204 billion spent on construction materials for single-family and multifamily homes.
Softwood Lumber: Canada supplies a large amount of U.S. imports.
Gypsum (Drywall): Most comes from Mexico.
Appliances & Fixtures: Many are imported, primarily from China and Mexico.
Mortgage Rates:Historically, the spread between the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year mortgage averages about 1.77%. If the 10-year Treasury is at 4%, the typical mortgage rate would be 5.77%. The spread hit a recent high of 2.9% in Q2 2023, dropping to 2.43% last quarter—still well above average, but improving. As of July 14, the 10-year Treasury is around 4.43%, and the 30-year mortgage rate sits at 6.83% (Mortgage News Daily).
Is the Federal Reserve the only reason rates are high? Not exactly. Historically, the spread widens during recessions, when mortgage risk rises due to more foreclosures and high unemployment. There are two major outliers on the chart below where there wasn’t a recession with high spreads: now, and Q3 1986.In 1986, several factors contributed:
Oil price crash: One of the sharpest drops in history.
Disinflation surprise: Inflation fell below 2% for the first time since the 1960s.
Yield drop: The 10-year Treasury fell from about 7.4% in June to 7.1% in September, continuing into 1987.
Policy uncertainty: Congress was debating the Tax Reform Act of 1986, creating uncertainty for investment income, real estate, and bonds.
Does this sound familiar? If history repeats, we may see the spread come back toward average as it did in 1987. Other factors include the supply and demand for mortgages and government bonds—more supply tends to lower rates.
What’s Next?
Keep an eye on July’s listing and contract numbers, as well as whether median prices hold at their seasonal high. So far, buyer demand remains solid, especially when homes are priced and presented well.
Questions about how these trends affect your plans? Feel free to reach out anytime for a deeper conversation about buying, selling, or investing.
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Kyle NiemannEngel & Völkers Kansas City913-530-7596 cell913-900-0001 officekyle@kyleniemann.com
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