July 2025 Residential Market Update Highlights for the Kansas City Region

Fireworks and For-Sale Signs

While July brought fireworks to the skies, it also sparked movement in the housing market. From shifting inventory to summer buyers on the hunt, here’s what lit up—and what fizzled out—in July.

Median Sales Price Growth Remains Strong

• July median sales price (all resale homes): $325,000

• 6.8% growth over July 2024

• 0.3% increase over June 2025

Typically, June marks the peak of the year, followed by a slow decline through January. About one-third of the years since 1998 have seen July prices rise over June, and this year joined that group with a modest uptick.

Looking ahead, history suggests August rarely beats July—only three times in 27 years has it happened. Early August 2025 numbers show a 3.32% decline from July. By contrast, December has seen an increase nine times, while most other second-half months only 3–5 times. January has managed just three increases over the prior December, with the last one in 2019.

New Listings Continue Their Streak

• July listings: 6.6% increase over July 2023

• Positive year-over-year growth in 11 of the past 13 months

Only November 2024 (-0.99%) and February 2025 (-7.4%) broke the trend. This steady flow of supply has kept prices from the double-digit spikes seen during the COVID years.

On the chart below, the days on market (blue bars) are beginning their typical climb toward first-quarter highs. As homes sit longer, the average list-to-sales price ratio drops, with buyers now paying roughly 2% below list price—a shift from the peak-season competition.

Contracts and Closings Keep Pace

• Contracts written in July: +9.9% year-over-year

• YTD new listings: nearly 1,700 more than 2024

• YTD closings: only 150 more than 2024

• July closings: +2.6% over July 2024

This signals supply is rising while demand holds steady. Given the strong contract numbers in July, expect closings to climb in August and September as those deals move through the pipeline.

Potential Challenges Ahead

Inflation, Tariffs & Construction Costs

Inflation has remained tame for consumers, but wholesale costs are rising. Tariffs could keep inflation elevated for about a year until comparisons are against other post-tariff prices. Even if tariffs ease later, companies are unlikely to roll back prices—instead, higher margins may be the result.

Mortgage Rates

• Current 30-year fixed: just over 6.5% (10-year low)

• Even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates, mortgage rates may not move much; the market tends to adjust early.

• The bigger lever is the spread between the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates, which remains wider than historical averages.

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What’s Next?

Expect mixed headlines in the months ahead. Year-over-year numbers will highlight strength, while month-to-month figures may be spun as weakness. In reality, this is the usual Kansas City market cycle playing out.

Want to know how these trends affect your plans? Let’s talk about how to position your home purchase or sale in today’s shifting market.

Engel & Völkers Kansas City

913-900-0001

We continue to see the spread between the 10 year treasury yield and the 30 year mortgage be unusually large and for a longer period compared to historical non recession periods. Narrowing this gap to the 50 year average of 1.77% would put interest rates closer to 6% than the current 6.6%.